据路透社9月17日维也纳报道,来自欧佩克的消息人士17日在维也纳表示,随着竞争对手非欧佩克产油国产量增长放缓,欧佩克预测油价将每年每桶增长不超过5美元在2020年前将达到每桶80美元。
消息人士说,这些数字来自欧佩克代表本周在维也纳讨论的一份更新的中期战略报告,这份报告迄今还没有得到欧佩克石油部长们的完全赞同。
报告预测非欧佩克产油国的原油日供应量在2017年前将在5820万桶,比先前的预测每天减少了大约100万桶。
其中的一名消息人士说,即使市场因低油价将打击高成本的非欧佩克产油国开始重新平衡,然而,油价不太可能在2030-2040年前返回到每桶100美元以上。
2030年至2040年的10年将是第一个阶段,欧佩克在这个阶段中将看到其全球市场份额从目前的33%增加到40%。
李峻 编译
原文如下:
OPEC Sees Oil Prices Returning To $80/Barrel By 2020
Reuters
Thursday, September 17, 2015
OPEC forecasts oil prices will grow by no more than $5 per barrel a year to reach $80 by 2020, with rival non-OPEC production growth slowing, according to OPEC sources.
The sources said the figures came from an updated mid-term strategy report discussed this week by the representatives from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna, which has yet to be fully endorsed by OPEC ministers.
The report forecasts that non-OPEC supply would amount to 58.2 million barrels per day by 2017, some 1 million barrels per day lower than in the previous forecast.
But even if markets begin to rebalance as low oil prices are hurting high-cost non-OPEC producers, prices are unlikely to return above $100 per barrel until 2030-2040, according to one of the sources.
The decade between 2030 and 2040 would be the first period when OPEC will see its global market share rising to 40 percent from the current 33 percent.