据道琼斯9月3日消息,因油价自其5月8日公布上次预期后已大幅下跌,法国巴黎银行(BNP)大幅下调了对今明两年原油价格的预期。对于布伦特原油,该行称今年价格均值为56美元/桶,明年为62美元/桶,此前的预期分别是62美元/桶和76美元/桶。该银行称,今年美国基准原油价格在51美元/桶,低于原先预测的55美元/桶,明年价格在56美元/桶,低于原先预计的70美元/桶。该行预测原油价格会在2015年底回升,但称这会招致对价格具有弹性的美国页岩油供应反弹。页岩油供应反弹连同预计的欧佩克继续提升产量以及伊朗原油大幅回流,可能会抑制2016年上半年的油价涨幅。
唐绍红摘译自道琼斯
原文如下:
BNP Cuts Oil-Price Forecasts
BNP Paribas substantially lowers its oil-price forecasts for this year and next due to the price slide since its last forecasts were released May 8. For Brent, BNP sees prices averaging $56/barrel this year and $62/barrel next year, down from earlier forecasts of $62/barrel and $76/barrel. The bank sees the US benchmark at $51/barrel this year, down from its earlier forecast of $55/barrel, and at $56/barrel next year, down from $70/barrel. BNP sees prices rising at the end of 2015, but "the recovery in turn will invite a return of price elastic US shale oil supply, which, in combination with our assumption of continued elevated OPEC output and a progressive return of Iranian barrels, will limit price gains in 1H 2016."