据道琼斯8月17日消息,新加坡华侨银行经济学家Barnabas Gan表示,由于市场对伊朗新增石油供应以及欧佩克不愿减产态度的敏感,如果悲观情绪进一步加剧,油价跌破每桶40美元的可能性越来越大。他表示,石油市场的再平衡可能会延长至2016年,因为欧佩克和伊朗原油供应明年会逐渐增多。Gan称,预计2015年底西得州中质油(WTI)和布伦特原油的价格分别为每桶55美元和60美元,但在供大于求局面长时间持续的情况下,油价存在下行风险。
唐绍红摘译自道琼斯
原文如下:
OCBC: Nymex Oil Below $40/Barrel Is Possible
[Dow Jones] Owing to market sensitivity to additional oil supply from Iran and amid OPEC's reluctance to reduce production, an oil price below $40 a barrel is increasingly possible should bearish sentiment escalate further, economist Barnabas Gan at Singapore's OCBC Bank says. He says the rebalancing of the oil market is likely to be prolonged into 2016 as OPEC and Iranian crude oil supplies inch higher next year. Mr. Gan says he expects WTI and Brent crude at $55/bbl and $60/bbl for end-2015 respectively, but with a downside risk given the prolonged oversupply.